Cross Lanes, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

291
FXUS61 KRLX 141749
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1249 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Held onto chances of pops across the lowlands a little longer than
previously forecast with anticipated fetch off of Great Lakes, and
model soundings indicating ample moisture in crystal growth zone.
Also, based on new snowfall forecast amounts, expanded the winter
weather advisory across some of the mountains, and expanded the cold
weather advisory in some locations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Rain changes over to snow area wide this evening, along
  with falling temperatures. Snow continues across the area for
  much of the day Thursday, along with the potential for snow
  squalls to develop, possibly affecting the Thursday morning
  commute. Mainly light accumulations expected across the
  lowlands, and light to moderate accumulations across the
  mountains. Gusty winds Thursday will lead to reduced
  visibilities at times in snow showers, and create very cold
  wind chills, particularly across the higher terrain where a
  cold weather advisory has been issued.

- 2) Colder temperatures to finish the week and into early next
  week, along with several quick moving disturbances that will
  produce periods of snow showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Precipitation will change over to snow area wide this evening as an
upper trough sags south across the area, and lead to quite the drop
in temperatures, with temperatures by Thursday morning generally in
the teens to lower 20s area wide. Snow will quickly transition from
a rather heavy/wet texture, to a fluffier lighter snow as the colder
air filters into the region. Snow will continue during the day
Thursday, as a favorable moisture fetch sets up off Lake Michigan,
with snow squalls expected at times during the day on Thursday,
possibly affecting Thursday morning commutes, leading to reduced
visibility and snow covered roads. As is the case, often difficult
to pinpoint where individual squalls or bands of heavier snowfall
will set up, and no one model seems to have a better handle versus
the other this far out. As a general rule, light accumulations are
expected across the lower elevations, generally less than 1 to 2
inches, with a general 2 to 5 inches across the higher terrain,
although with the expected squalls, some lowland locations could
creep towards that 2 inch mark. The low/trough will move east of the
area as the day progresses on Thursday, with precipitation gradually
shunting off across the area. Did elect to go ahead and expand the
winter weather advisory some across the more mountainous counties
based on latest snowfall forecast.

In addition to the snow, gusty winds will take hold particularly
this evening across the area, with a tight pressure gradient taking
hold and CAA. Winds are generally anticipated to remain below wind
advisory criteria, however, with the colder air filtering in, wind
chills in the single digits to teens can be anticipated across the
lower elevations, with single digits to below zero anticipated
across the mountains. Based on new cold weather advisory criteria of
-5 for some areas, expanded upon the cold weather advisory from
 previous forecast. Higher elevations will continue longer in
 duration on this as opposed to expanded counties, due to
 continued winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Continued cold and unsettled this weekend and into early next week,
with multiple fast moving disturbances, each bringing reinforcing
shots of cold air, and light snow shower activity. Light
accumulations will be possible at times. In addition, gusty winds at
times during the period will continue to bring low wind chills to
the area at times, and additional cold advisory headlines may be
needed across the higher terrain late this week into early next
week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Widespread MVFR ceilings are slowly taking hold from north to
south as rain overspreads the area. Expecting a gradual
deterioration to widespread IFR, and local LIFR, generally
after 00Z as snow overspreads the area. The bulk of the snow
will start to taper off across the lower elevations after 12-15Z
Thursday, with some improvement to MVFR and perhaps VFR across
the lower elevations. Snow will continue during the period
across the higher terrain, with widespread MVFR and areas of IFR
continuing.

In addition, southwesterly winds will be on the increase
tonight, particularly after 22Z, and will gradually turn to a
more westerly/northwesterly direction. Expect sustained winds in
the teens across the lower elevations, and in the 20s across the
higher terrain. Gusts in the 20 kt range can be anticipated
across the lower elevations and 20-30 kt range across the
mountains.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Conditions on Thursday may remain IFR or
worse longer than previously forecast in snow showers. Snow
squalls on Thursday could produce brief IFR or worse
conditions.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    M    H    H    M    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible at times this weekend with additional periods of
snow showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for WVZ039-040-520>523-525-526.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     WVZ518-520-522-525.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday
     for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL